This will be the year that not only sees the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution, it will be a national election year following recent seismic political goings-on, and one where the nation’s dearly-beloved football team will enter the EURO 24 tournament on top form and with high hopes.
Let’s hope too that would-be immigrant nerves begin to settle after this year of Golden Visa and NHR tax regime sacrifices, and that the incredibly low-paid get a raise. And while we’re wish-listing, why don’t we keep our fingers crossed that plans for affordable housing are made manifest in the form of tangible dwellings for those most in need.
Those seeking the votes of the Portuguese will certainly be talking in these latter terms, making promises and virtue signalling for support, whilst popping that hot political potato of migrant impact either on the back burner or letting it boil over for effect or advantage. ‘Twas ever thus that the foreigner has their uses around election time, in any part of the world.
But, what of us incomers, who want the best for our host nation? Who do we want ideally at the helm of our new home, and what are we looking for either on the pitch, in the parliament or from the protectors of Portuguese democracy that was so relatively recently made a fact of national life in 1974?
Let’s first take a look at what are being described as the ‘snap legislative elections’ that will take place on March 10 of the new year, to form the ‘16th Legislature of Portugal’, where all 230 seats of the ‘Assembly of the Republic’ are up for grabs.
To recap, way back in the distant political past of 2022, former Prime Minister António Costa’s Socialist Party, known generally as PS, won an absolute majority with 41% of the votes and 120 seats of the 230 total. PSD, Portugal’s main opposition and Social Democratic party, managed 77 seats and 29% of the vote at the time.
Chega, literally ‘Enough’, and the party that has earned itself the ‘far-right’ tag, gained 12 seats then, Liberal Initiative (IL) picked up eight seats, with ‘far-left’ parties, the PCP (Portuguese Communist Party) and the Left Bloc (BE), achieving their worst results ever with around 4% of the votes bagging just six and five seats, respectively. Outsiders, PAN (loosely the animal rights party) and LIVRE (libertarians) won just one seat each.
As we look forward to 2024, and perhaps only the dust of ‘Senhor Costa’ and his scandalous departure, some say for a new life in EU politics, those with a view on the matter tell me the new government is unlikely to be a majority again, forcing collaboration and coalition.
So, whilst the foreigner may well feel a little self-conscious at election time, with accusations of booming the property market and putting pressure on Portugal’s already-under-pressure social infrastructure, politicians are likely to be more domestically focussed, compromising for power rather than lording it over anyone.
Let’s hope then that the spotlight stays off the non-natives, who, as I have said before, will do well to organise themselves, given we are close to one in 10 of the population. But until migrants and expats do organise and represent themselves to the political class, and to the Portuguese people, they can only hope that attention is focused elsewhere.
One such focus may well be the irresistible sociological beacon and milestone of Carnation Revolution anniversary celebrations, to which many politicos are likely to be hitching their campaign wagons and making good capital of the heightened political atmosphere it will offer.
As the country looks back and reflects on its democratic gains, I will remain wide-eyed and in wonderment when it comes to the events of April 25, 1974, and the story, as I understand it, of a country that managed to evolve from a dictatorship to democracy without bloodshed, and so recently in modern European history.
Most parties and players will no doubt claim some sort of ancestral glory for that great moment where, as Catarina Príncipe puts it, “the thirst for freedom overcame all fears”.
Should you need a brief introduction, Catarina explains further: “On the 25th of April, the MFA (Armed Forces Movement) announced that the people should remain at home because they feared armed confrontations on the streets. But the Portuguese population clearly disobeyed the military orders to stay at home.
“People took to the streets, to the thousands, and supported the military coup to force the resignation of the leader of the regime. The people brought red carnations and distributed them to the soldiers who stuck them in their rifle barrels making the flower the symbol of the revolution,” she continues, in an excellent podcast I discovered – Portugal’s Carnation Revolution Started on This Day in 1974. What Did It Accomplish?
“The revolutionary process of ‘74 and ‘75 was one of the liveliest experiences in Portuguese history. In 19 months, there were two failed coups, six provisional governments, the process of independence of the colonies, several mass strike waves, demonstrations, occupations of thousands of houses, a profound agricultural reform, occupations of lands, the creation of workers’ cooperatives, workers’ councils, trade unions, neighbourhood commissions, self-managed factories, businesses, offices, newspapers and radio (stations),” explains Príncipe.
This, clearly, is a wonderful moment in this nation’s, and arguably world, history that will be an inspiring backdrop for a general election, where politicians and electorate alike might sense a transformational zeal or resonance in the air, and look for profound change and practical solutions, and perhaps even some accountability?
Northern Portugal-based Good Morning Portugal! co-host António Barbosa recently shared his hopes for next year with me, referencing the revolutionary atmosphere and downplaying the likelihood of extremism.
“Nothing functions when you’re in extremities and polarities,” he told me. “Can you imagine the 25th of April, and the people that fought for the very liberty we have here in Portugal? They would be turning in their grave knowing that, by chance, there was a right-wing government here. Portugal is for liberty, for socialism, for everybody, for community. Too far to either left or right is not good for anything.”
I for one agree and hope he’s right and add one Bruce Hawker here to the predictions for the year ahead, he of Open Media, publishers of this paper. Bruce, during his recent appearance on my morning show, voiced that despite “our own political problems at the moment”, Portugal is “very well positioned to weather everything that’s going on. I think we can all be fairly upbeat that 2024 is going to be a good year for Portugal as far as tourism is concerned, as far as people moving here to invest, to live.”
Another great opinion source is taxi drivers. One once told me that Portugal is essentially three F’s: Football, Fátima and Fado. My assessment of the new year has conspicuously left out any commentary on the nation’s soul or song, but it would be unforgivable not to touch on the beautiful game given its popularity as well as its ability to distract attention from political matters.
I call upon Algarve-based private chef and my Good Morning Portugal! co-host Frank Devane to comment on this crucial matter, who thinks Portugal have an outside chance of winning the tournament. What a year ‘24 could turn out to be should that be the case.
“They have landed a favourable group with Turkey and Czech Republic,” says my pundit pal. “Some may have an issue with their possession style of play, but they can produce shocking results on any given day. Martinez has them playing organised football. As always, our weakness is defence, but the midfield is stacked with players like Ruben and João Neves, Fernandes and Palhinha. Up front the likes of Félix, Jota and, of course, ‘the GOAT’ Cristiano Ronaldo.”
“Don’t forget,” concludes Frank, with information that may put all previously mentioned in the shade next year, “this will be Ronaldo’s swan song so the entire team will be up for it. Força Portugal!”
Incidentally, and in stark contrast to matters down to (footballing) earth, Mrs Munson is an astrologer and has 2024 down as “a year for empowerment”.
She says: “As we make a strong effort to make good on our long-cherished goals in 2024, this is a promising year to redefine what life is about. It’s a time of ‘two minds’, with strong encouragement to lean into technological and social transformation possibilities, where Portugal can redefine itself during the Carnation Revolution golden anniversary.”
So, there you have it! An exciting year ahead about which I’d love to hear your hopes for yourself, for your neighbourhood and for the country. Drop me a line and it’ll be my pleasure to share your dreams and predictions for the new year on my morning show.
Send your 2024 message to carl@goodmorningportugal.com or WhatsApp (00 351) 913 590 303.
Carl Munson is host of the Good Morning Portugal! show every weekday on YouTube and creator of www.learnaboutportugal.com, where you can learn something new about Portugal every day!
