Financial body “more optimistic than Portugal’s own government”
The IMF has revised Portugal’s economic growth upwards to 1.7% this year, which is slightly more optimistic than the government, cutting the inflation rate to 2.2%.
In the “World Economic Outlook” (WEO), published as part of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, the institution led by Kristalina Georgieva points to an expansion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.7% this year and 2.1% in 2025.
Compared to the report released in October last year, this forecast represents an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points (p.p.) for 2024 and a cut of 0.1 p.p. for 2025.
The IMF is more optimistic than the Portuguese government, which in the 2024-2028 Stability Programme forecasts growth of 1.5% this year and 1.9% next under a no-policy-change scenario.
In the update of the Public Finance Council’s (CFP) forecasts, published this month, the organisation led by Nazaré da Costa Cabral maintained the growth of the Portuguese economy this year at 1.6% and predicts an expansion of 1.9% in 2025.
The Bank of Portugal (in the news this week for a billion euro operational deficit) sees Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increasing by 2%, while the European Commission and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) point to a rate of 1.2%.
The IMF also predicts an inflation rate of 2.2% this year and 2% in 2025, a downward revision from the 3.4% in 2024 and 2.4% projected in the October report.
Analysts have stressed that all these forecasts could change on a worsening of conflicts, particularly in the Middle East.
The Bretton Woods institution points to an unemployment rate of 6.5% this year and 6.3% in 2025.
The IMF is slightly less optimistic about economic growth in the eurozone and now forecasts an increase in GDP of 0.8% this year and 1.5% in 2025, according to projections released today. At the same time, it has improved this year’s global growth forecast by 0.1% to 3.2% in 2024.
Souce material: LUSA
