European election results show ‘people want consensus’
Popular tabloid Correio da Manhã summed up last weekend’s European election results with the headline: “Portugal gives lesson of stability to Europe”.
While in other countries (most notably France, Germany and Austria) witnessed a surge in movements of right-wing extremism, “Portugal was the anticyclone”, explained CM’s opening paragraph: “Parties of the centre polled the most votes and the more extremist parties, both left and right, were penalised”.
The country’s AD (Democratic Alliance) party technically came ‘second’ behind PS Socialists (whose leader crowed “The PS today is the leading political force in Portugal!”), but even that was questionable: global results show the country has moved firmly to the right – and no left-wing coalition could muster any kind of convincing challenge.
Put another way, for AD and PS, the results of the European elections very much mirror those of recent legislative elections; for right-wing CHEGA they most certainly did not.
CHEGA came in a very ‘lucky’ third place – a very long way behind, and closely followed by right-wing Iniciativa Liberal.
Abstention too was ‘elevated’: for all the positive spin of commentators (voting was touted as ‘increased on results in the 2019 elections’), over 63% of the country couldn’t be bothered to cast their vote/or simply forgot – which again was seen as playing conveniently into the government’s hands.
Expresso journalist and political commentator Ricardo Costa explained: “The results show there is no appetite at all in this country for new elections. The next State Budget (previously viewed as a potentially fatal obstacle for the minority AD government) needs to pass.”
Indeed, Ricardo Costa suggested that if it didn’t – if PS Socialists continued with the strategy of blocking government policy – fractures could open within the party as the majority of Socialist mayors are banking on a smooth passage for the next State Budget, as their own finances will depend on it.
As our Sunday online ‘breaking news’ banner showed, the final results saw PS Socialists taking 32.1% of the vote, and sending eight MEPs to Strasbourg (one less than in the elections of 2019); AD, led by former political commentator Sebastião Bugalho, with 31.1% and seven MEPs: CHEGA with 9.8% and two MEPs; Iniciativa Liberal with 9.07%, also two MEPs and Bloco de Esquerda and CDU communists both with just over 4% of the vote, meaning they take one MEP each to Europe.
PAN and LIVRE, arguably two political parties whose focus is frequently on the environment, both failed to muster enough votes for any kind of representation in Europe, in line with the other signpost coming out of these elections: citizens are uninspired by the ‘green agenda’; the zeal to accelerate zero emissions, etc., as far more personal issues, like housing, cost of living, and social peace take precedence.
And echoing the words of Ricardo Costa on SIC on Sunday night, Correio da Manhã’s Monday coverage stressed that although AD may not have won the elections, “the reading within the party is that the government gained important security, because neither the PS nor CHEGA will risk creating a political crisis that obliges the fall of the executive within the coming months.
“After eight years of Socialist hegemony which ended in March (…), the country has moved to the right.
“The left, which five years ago had an ample majority among Portuguese voters, has suffered huge erosion (…) AD, Iniciativa Liberal and CHEGA now have a comfortable majority”, while the results also delivered CHEGA “a lesson in humility” (see below).
Thus, looking inwardly, the results could hardly have been better in terms of the message of ‘stability’ for Portugal as a country.
Looking beyond Portugal’s borders, however, sees Europe overshadowed by ominous stormclouds. As Reuters news agency reports, “Russian politicians revel in Euro election defeats of Macron, Scholz”. The Russian Federation’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov made a point of saying the Kremlin will be “closely tracking” what comes next: “Despite the fact that the pro-Europeans retain their leading positions for the time being, over time, the right-wing parties will step on their heels,” he added.
But for now at least, Portugal is ‘sitting comfortably’. The country has withstood the waves of extremism fanning across much of Europe, and has a government that is already rolling up its sleeves to tackle key vulnerabilities.
Elections’ biggest winner could be … António Costa!
This is one of the curious bonuses of the European election results. It has been widely suggested that prime minister Luís Montenegro ‘did a deal’ with his predecessor, to agree that AD would support António Costa’s candidacy to the top job as president of the European Council if he would not take part in PS Socialist campaigning ahead of the elections (which he did not).
This decision caused some internal bad feeling within the Socialist party as arguably Costa’s support might have enthused voters further: the party might not have ‘lost’ an MEP this time round. But equally, commentators say the PS Socialist ‘win’ gives a boost to current PS secretary-general Pedro Nuno Santos, who was out on the streets throughout the campaign supporting list leader Marta Temido whose ebullience eventually ‘won the day’.
As far as his wily predecessor is concerned, Costa now has much of the support that he needs for that top job in Europe that he has long been credited with coveting: German chancellor Olaf Scholz is one of his supporters, as is Spain’s Pedro Sánchez.
European leaders are said to be meeting on Sunday for an informal dinner which will stand as a ‘crucial test’ for Mr Costa’s candidacy.
CHEGA ‘lost’ 800,000 voters
CHEGA leader André Ventura made no bones about his desire to have “as many MEPs elected to Europe” as the PS and/or AD. Four would be good, five a great deal better, six or seven the best. Thus the two that will be taking up their seats in the European Parliament are not what Mr Ventura was hoping for at all – and he has admitted this publicly.
In all, CHEGA lost around 800,000 voters (since the throngs that voted in the March 10 national elections), and no-one really understands where they have all gone …
By NATASHA DONN
