Good news for government; bad for ‘democracy’
Luís Montenegro’s AD centre-right government has received some good news today, in the form of a new poll that shows 20% of the electorate would vote for its return in the elections in two months time, as opposed to 15% who would vote for the only likely alternative, PS Socialists.
The poll, conducted between March 12-17 by ISC/ISCTE for Expresso and SIC, suggests that PS Socialists have not benefited in any substantial way from the political crisis created ‘out of nowhere’ over the prime minister’s family company Spinumviva. This is despite the endless column inches appearing in national media every day to insinuate that Spinumviva represents a serious potential conflict of interest for the country’s political leader.
But the poll is bittersweet (and it is ‘just a poll’ taken before the parties all ‘hit the streets’ and start trying to beguile the electorate). Those questioned who said they truly did not know who they would vote for, or even if they would bother, “reached an absolute majority”, explains Expresso: 39%.
Portugal is known for its ‘apathy’ at the ballot box, but 39% reeks of voter exhaustion.
This time last year, when the country had just been through a similar election, the number of undecided in the last ICS/ISCTE poll had been ‘only 18%’ (and remember, that election resulted in a minority government that had to haggle its way through months before falling as it did earlier this month).
Before that, the 2022 election (which brought a thumping PS majority, undermined by a corruption probe a few months later) had 14% of undecided, many of whom only decided how they would vote on election day.
In other words, 39% is ‘unprecedented’, and worrying – particularly as this is a year when voters will be called again, and again to vote (next for municipal elections in the autumn, and finally for presidential in January 2026).
Seen from another perspective, the poll is also very bad news for opposition parties: PS Socialists because they are so clearly intent on ‘wrestling back power’ – and arguably because it was their insistence on a parliamentary inquiry into the prime minister that tipped the balance in this political crisis; CHEGA because they are only likely to clinch 9% of the vote, when leader André Ventura is so obviously gunning for more, and almost all the other parties because they don’t muster more than 1% of voting intentions for all their cries of indignation and ballyhoos against the government.
Iniciativa Liberal seems set to maintain its position as the fourth most voted party in the country, with 4% of voting intentions (and its leader has intimated there could be scope for a coalition with AD if and when the moment came) – but none of it is looking good: so much so that Expresso suggests President Marcelo has already put a condition on the swearing in of the next government – it has to be able to show that it has the capacity to “fully enter functions” (ie it cannot be so precarious that we have a repeat of the last year…)
In the event that such a government does not emerge from the May 18 election, the bottom line is grim: Marcelo is prohibited from calling new elections (as he is on his way out, after a 10-year stint as Portugal’s head of state): the country would have to keep going, through municipal elections, then presidential elections – and only after these, and after a new president takes office – in what will effectively be a year’s time – would new legislative elections once again be able to be scheduled.
On the subject of presidential elections, ‘personalities’ are already muddying the waters. Former presidential candidate Manuel Alegre has told Antena 1 that he views the almost certain candidacy of former Naval Admiral Gouveia e Melo “suspicious” because he is not aligned to any political party.
Alegre is also worried that AD may ‘change horses’ in the run-up to the May elections, and bring in a new leader who would be prepared to run in coalition with CHEGA…
The next two months promise to be a roller-coaster ride, with no guarantee of an easy landing.
