Every now and then, on my Good Morning Portugal! show, I’ll ask my viewers and listeners how they are doing.
On these occasions, it’s not just a cheerful and cursory “Tudo bem?” that issues en passant from my busy mouth; it is more a heartfelt check-in that encourages our GuMPer community to authentically and vulnerably look within. I do this knowing that our friendly and supportive ‘tribe’ will cope with any answer, compassionately and carefully, just as it did in the mental health-challenging Covid crisis, where we began the GMP! endeavour.
Post-pandemic, the suggested new normal seems to have stalled at not-normal or never-to-be-normal-again, as humanity faces new challenges on numerous fronts, where normality itself is now a nostalgic or mythical thing, made of misty-eyed memories. It is no longer a state that we can take for granted as a more-or-less carefree day-to-day experience, as it once was when summers were long, winters cold, and before climate (and everything else) changed.
Each new day seems to bring fresh and growing concerns when one considers the global picture, which of course has its way, in some way, with the local life around us and those with whom we live it. So, I am asking you too, today: “How are YOU?” – in a similarly earnest, early morning way, wondering if life as we know it, as you know it, is all tickety-boo or maybe weighing a little heavy?
Recently of course, I asked readers not to take too much notice of the politics back home, injurious as that addiction can be, only to be hoist days later on my own British petard, as some of my native countrymen took to the streets in an uncivil, civil rage. Appalling scenes ensued over several days, causing self-harming devastation, and leaving in its wake an overlay of hasty and harsh governmental control, barely concealing a continuing, smouldering resentment.
Since then, I have not been able to take my eyes off the metaphorical rear-view mirror I mentioned, watching agog, as my worst fears are realised, in real time. As my old, own ‘Rome’ burns, I am also present to rising tensions, warring factions and beastly behaviour in far too many other parts of the world, giving me, giving us, an ongoing challenge to stay sane in crazy times.
I’d like it noted that I am the ‘Life is Good’ guy too. I have waxed lyrical, and will continue to bang on about how important it is, to remember the intrinsic joy that there is in unfettered and unfiltered life, that so easily becomes the casualty of all that I just mentioned above. Despite the crazy, we can still, thank God, rejoice in the newborn, enjoy the true Olympic spirit, and be inspired by the heroes who, without a care for personal safety, save lives in the most disgusting and despicable scenarios we so effortlessly create.
Life goes on. Love abides. And as the odds against all that is good and holy increase, strategies are needed when the answer to “How are you?” might be “Terrible, thanks” (as my father used to say to wrong foot the superficially-curious passer-by). Let me bear witness to you, if your answer to the question is “Terrible”, “Terrified” or “Traumatised”. And I have something for you, by way of comfort, as the room we share is no longer big enough for both the elephant in it, as well as an air-headed Pollyanna whose only solution is to think positive.
Relief may come if we can find understanding as well as give judgement: an understanding of the times we live in, an understanding of these times within a historical context, and an understanding of ourselves and the urges that make it so.
One concept or framework that gives such understanding, and more importantly hope (eventually), is the ‘The Strauss-Howe generational theory’, devised by William Strauss and Neil Howe, which as Wikipedia has it, “describes a theorized recurring generation cycle in American history and Western history.”
“According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes). Each generational persona unleashes a new era (called a turning) lasting around 21 years, in which a new social, political, and economic climate (mood) exists,” it continues.
The turnings are part of a larger cyclical ‘saeculum’, which corresponds to a long human life of around 85 year, (although some have lasted longer), and the theory states that a ‘crisis’ recurs in American history after every saeculum, which is followed by a recovery, known as a ‘high’.
Hazard a guess then as to the ‘turning’ in which we now find ourselves, as you ask me: “Why are you talking about American historical cycles? And what has this got to do with Portugal’s, or for that matter Europe’s fortunes, in the febrile times that we find ourselves?”
Firstly, and I am sure it comes as no surprise, it’s the ‘crisis’ phase that we’re in, AKA the ‘Fourth Turning’ of the grand saeculum-esque cycle, which has followed the ‘unravelling’ that included the fall of the Berlin Wall, September 11, the Gulf Wars and culminated with the financial crash of 2008.
Before the unravelling phase came the ‘awakening’, the time of Martin Luther King, the Vietnam War, mind-expanding drug use and ultimately the first personal computers; a time synonymous with the emergence and dominance of the Gen-Xers, like me.
These are, of course, largely American chronological and cultural markers, but it’s unlikely and no accident that you’ll be unaware of them, given their global significance and impact. Let’s face it: the last great historical period, the last saeculum, has been dominated by US, ‘western’ and (literally) allied ideas that have shaped recent European development, and thrown light (or cast a shadow) across the entire world. That’s why I think this framework works, even here in Portugal.
And as America, UK and Western Europe now seethe and smoulder, ether figuratively or actually, at this precipitous time, you might like to know that – in the midst of this crisis – a ‘high’ is said to be coming (as history repeats itself), as if this current dismal struggle and anxiety-provoking uncertainty is an entirely predictable darkness before a new dawn.
According to the theory we are considering here, it will be Gen-Z (the adults-to-be and in waiting) who will lead the way, mimicking their Boomer ancestors and great-grandparents who co-created the hopeful and idealistic culture of the post-World War Two era, when anything and everything seemed possible.
To know that history does repeat itself, or at least rhyme, is both a curse and, as we see here (if Strauss and Howe are to be believed), a blessing. When the suffocating gloom of these dark times seems to be intensifying and offering no let up or light, I take great comfort in knowing that “this too shall pass”.
As uncomfortable as it feels right now, consider that the tides of time itself are moving us forward to stiller and purer waters. Whilst acknowledging and preparing for the worst, let’s also remember to leave space at the table for hope, and for an historically-ordained and predicted HIGH, whose breath we may soon feel on our blessed necks here in Portugal.
By Carl Munson
Carl Munson is host of the Good Morning Portugal! show every weekday on YouTube and creator of www.learnaboutportugal.com, where you can learn something new about Portugal every day!
