With just two days to go before the government’s first state budget is presented to parliament, high drama is still the order of play.
PS Socialists are particularly refusing to sanction the government’s proposal for a reduced corporate income tax (IRC), leading analysts to suggest that the ground is being prepared for the PS to ‘abstain’ in final voting.
By abstaining, the bill would easily pass (even if all other parties vote against it) – and thus the country would be spared the deeply-damaging prospect of new parliamentary elections (the consequence of the budget falling, already spelled out by president Marcelo).
Without PS Socialists’ 78 votes, the other parties – even including CHEGA with its 50 MPs – cannot match the PSD-CDS-PP coalition’s combination of 78 votes.
Political analyst Bruno Costa told SIC today that, as far as he can see, “Pedro Nuno Santos will be strongly advised by this parliamentary group, and his inner circle, to find a narrative in which the PS did everything to improve the budgetary proposal, and on the basis of these improvements, is abstaining from the budget in the name of the country and stability”.
Equally CHEGA may be deciding to play a more prominent role in the country’s future.
The right-wing party is also preparing ground, and is believed to be in the throes of deciding (at an ‘urgent meeting’ called today by leader André Ventura) whether to vote in favour of the budget “with the country’s best interests in mind”.
This, explains Bruno Costa, is because, by doing so, CHEGA will ‘delight’ in insinuating two things: one, that it is the ‘main party in opposition’ (on the basis that numerous ‘crunch’ talks with PS Socialists have failed to find common ground), and two that it is the ‘adult party’ (by dint of taking a stand, not sitting on the fence and abstaining…)
All these machinations will become clear on Thursday. But the truth is that the people of this country are almost certainly sick to death of the subject, and just want politicians to think of the country and not of themselves.
A third round of legislative elections in just as many years could not serve any useful purpose (as the president has explained on numerous occasions, backed up by political experts and commentators): no party could be expected to emerge with a significant majority; vital time would be lost in terms of PRR (recovery and resilience) funding from Europe, and ratings agencies might even begin to tire of the country’s political unrest.
Thus, the stopwatch is ticking – but everything points to the 2025 State Budget being allowed to pass, for the sake of good sense and ‘tranquility’ – a word so often favoured by those in uncomfortable positions.
