Wide-open campaign has seen leaders fail to convince floating voters
The race to Portugal’s election touchline on Sunday, March 10 has been full-on frantic for weeks, with all parties represented in parliament galvanized by the fact that floating voters this time round are key.
Every poll to date has shown a ‘technical tie’ between the two main parties – PS Socialists, who have been in government for the past eight years, and Democratic Alliance (AD), which brings together PSD Social Democrats, CDS-PP, a party that has no seats in parliament, PPM, ditto, and a number of ‘independents’.
The technical tie, however, would mean neither political force emerging with a working majority.
PS Socialists could (as they have before) team up with the other left-wing parties (Communists, Bloco de Esquerda, LIVRE, PAN), but polling to date suggests even this will be unlikely to trounce AD’s potential ‘trump card’: an agreement with CHEGA – undeniably the country’s third political force, which has been showing significant gains throughout the campaign.
Polls predict CHEGA could emerge on Sunday with between 17%-20% of the vote. It is a party that is widely appealing to discontented voters, and the economic despondency among young people.
The ‘downside’ to an AD/CHEGA governing pact is the perception that CHEGA is a party of ‘divisive racists’, populist, and potentially dangerous.
Thus, every day until Friday, March 8, party leaders will be descending on communities up and down the country in the hope of snatching up extra votes and increasing their chances.
Even the smallest parties (LIVRE, PAN, communists, Bloco de Esquerda) believe their support could be ‘crucial’ to PS Socialists if the Socialists scrape through – and they have all been warning of the folly of any further absolute majorities: the PS’ absolute majority won in February 2022 took very little time to start unravelling; smaller parties’ messages are that ‘written agreements’ would be the much better way.
But the truth is that Portugal currently has eight parties represented in parliament, and at least one more (CDS-PP) that wants to make it back: the ‘fracturing of votes’ is thus one of this election’s greatest obstacles – and why everything, even at this ‘late stage’, remains wide open.
Abstention ‘another bugbear’
Taking advantage of the ‘early voting’ offered last Sunday (March 3) for ‘citizens away from home’ (roughly 200,000 are believed to have voted this way), President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa appealed for nationals to exercise their right to vote.
Abstention in Portuguese elections is often ‘very high’ (almost 50%), and this could frustrate results even further.
Because as much as leaders talk, are embraced, insulted – even pelted with paint (as happened to PSD’s Luís Montenegro last week) – there is the underlying ‘fear’ in this campaign that whatever government emerges on Sunday may not be ‘enough’: it may not have a solid enough base to weather the storms to come – hence why it is being stressed as so important that citizens turn up and cast their votes.
As to the key issues of the campaign, these have really been ‘drowned out’ by all the party-political infighting: the housing crisis, the crisis in the State health system, in education, in justice, in agriculture, in the police/prison services – these have all tended to be forgotten as party leaders tear strips off each other, and predict ‘disaster’ if their party doesn’t scoop the most votes.
Seasoned leader writers are playing it safe: no one can foresee next Sunday’s outcome. The only certainty is that Portugal’s party political system “will suffer a seismic shock”, says Armando Esteves Pereira, deputy editorial director of popular tabloid Correio da Manhã. “We just don’t know the size, which will depend on whether CHEGA receives a lot below the 20% (tipped in some polls), or if it gets close to that marker.”
Television commentators are also agreed: this election, however it falls, has been marked by the irrepressible rise of CHEGA, in spite of all the bad press thrown at it. And by CHEGA they mean one man: André Ventura, already widely featured by the international press who refer to him as a “former trainee priest and football pundit” – a man into whose hands the corruption scandals of recent months, damaging the credibility of both traditional political forces, could not have played more perfectly.
Talking to the Financial Times, Paula Espírito Santo, a political-science professor at the University of Lisbon, explained: “CHEGA brings to the surface all the discontent of people who are not happy with the system, with everyday life (…) They do not need to be coherent or have solutions that are feasible.”
Which is potentially why President Marcelo’s ‘greatest concern’ (highlighted back in January) is the possibility that whichever party, or parties, win on Sunday may well not be ‘enough’. To this end, he has reportedly been working on ensuring that should AD need CHEGA’s support, a solid ‘deal’ can be brokered without having yet another government collapse on his hands.
A ‘reliable source’ has told Expresso that “the coming year will see the president taking a supremely central role”. He “knows that he will have a more demanding end to his mandate (which comes to an end in March 2026) than he had hoped for, and that this will require more sang-froid” – and with luck will not have to see him “revisit his maximum power” – dissolving yet another parliament.
COMMENT By NATASHA DONN
natasha.donn@portugalresident.com
