Pundits predict collapse of centre-right government unless deal with CHEGA can be bartered
The Portuguese did not respond to the calls for a useful vote in Sunday’s legislative elections, resulting in the “most fragmented parliament ever” and with CHEGA being the “big winner”, according to political experts consulted by Lusa.
“It is a result that shows that the Portuguese did not respond to the call for a useful vote and decided to vote sincerely.
“We have to look back to 1985 to have an election in which PS and PSD together had less than 64%,” explains political scientist Marina Costa Lobo.
At a time when results have still not been finalised (emigré constituencies have not yet presented their votes), the researcher from the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Lisbon (ICS-UL) pointed out that it is not yet known if, for example, the Democratic Alliance (PSD, CDS-PP and PPM) comes first, whether it will have more votes and more seats than a “left-wing geringonça” (a combination of all the left-leaning parties in parliament: PS/ LIVRE/CDU/ Bloco de Esquerda/ PAN).
“This opens up enormous uncertainty, a period of uncertainty not only in terms of instability, but also in terms of forming a government,” she said.
Marina Costa Lobo accepted that Sunday’s election was very well attended and, unlike what happened in 2022 – when the PS won an absolute majority due to the “useful vote to prevent a right-wing majority” – this time they decided to “give politicians and parliamentarians back the ability to form alliances“, which “will depend not only on who forms the government but also on the action of the President of the Republic and the action of the parties”.
Costa Lobo pointed out that more than a million Portuguese voted for CHEGA, which has become a “consolidated force that will condition the work of the Assembly of the Republic”. It remains to be seen whether PS and PSD will support each other by standing up” to André Ventura’s party, isolating it, “or whether a path will be taken to reinforce left/ right bipolarisation, in the sense of leaving the PSD to CHEGA and not building bridges between left and right”.
As for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s role, Marina Costa Lobo considers that if the PS wins in terms of mandates, it will be “a very big disappointment for the President of the Republic“.
With regard to CHEGA, Marcelo “will do everything possible to create a central bloc understanding” that excludes that party, she said.
António Costa Pinto, a researcher at ICS-UL, considers that “CHEGA is the big winner of the night”, which managed not only to grow but to structure itself in national terms due to the homogeneous nature of the national distribution of mandates obtained “and for having conditioned a victory for AD”.
As for government formation scenarios, the researcher believes that the most likely is for AD to form a coalition government with Iniciativa Liberal, assuming that the PSD/CDS-PP/PPM coalition has more MPs than the PS.
“Portugal is used to having minority governments here. The novelty effect is CHEGA, which is, in fact, an anti-system party that has grown a lot,” said António Costa Pinto, predicting that a negative coalition of the left is unlikely in the short term if AD has more MPs and, together with IL, more parliamentary seats than the left.
Source: Lusa
