by Mike Johnson features@algarveresident.com
Mike Johnson is a freelance journalist who worked in the Algarve for more than 20 years. He now lives in Plymouth in the UK and comments on world topics which fascinate him.
For once, the opinion polls got it absolutely right. From the moment that Liberal Democrat leader, Nick Clegg, stole the limelight during the first-ever televised leadership debate in the recent UK general election, we believed that he could become the ‘king-maker’ of any future government.
Up until then, it had been assumed that the electorate, fed up with 13 years of New Labour, would return the Conservative party, under its shiny new leader, David Cameron, to power.
After all, this is how things traditionally happened in British politics – one major party ran the country for a couple of parliaments, then was replaced by the other.
This time, however, another factor entered the reckonings. After that first debate, the opinion polls put the Conservatives and the Lib/Dems neck and neck, with Labour trailing a poor third. Of course, our ‘first-past-the-post’ voting system could not deliver a Lib/Dem government, but it could give them a big say in which of the other two major parties was able to do so.
Traditionally, since the days of Gladstone, the Liberal party has leaned towards the left, and its natural ally would be Labour.
However, on this occasion, a lot would depend on ‘tactical voting’. This would occur where natural Liberal supporters would vote for one of the other parties in order to keep a third party out. Two weeks later, after the other TV debates, in which Nick Clegg failed to impress to the same extent, the opinion polls showed a return to the familiar voting pattern – the Conservatives ahead of Labour, but neither with a clear majority, and with the Lib/Dems third.
Many pundits believed, though, that the polls were wrong and that the Lib/Dem support among undecided voters was still strong. When the polling stations closed, exit polls, where people were asked the way they had voted, showed that we were indeed heading for a ‘hung’ parliament, where no one party would emerge with an overall majority over other parties.
It wasn’t until 21 hours later that the final result was declared and we learned that The Conservatives had only 306 seats, 20-odd short of the number they needed for an overall majority.
Labour had 258 seats but the big surprise was that the Lib/Dems had only 57, two less than in the previous parliament. It was obvious that the ‘floating’ voters had not gone with their initial instincts, but had, instead, reverted to their core loyalties.
With 27 seats won by minority parties, such as Nationalists from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, their support was vital if Labour were to do any deal with the Lib/Dems. If the Lib/Dems went against their natural instincts and backed the Conservatives, the result would be a clear majority government.
The ensuing 48 hours were among the most intriguing in political memory. Nick Clegg at first held talks with the Conservatives – clearly the majority party but also equally clearly not having completely won the trust of the electorate.
Labour, in the meantime, started holding talks with the small nationalist parties to see if they had enough support to form a minority government. Under the British electoral system, the ball is in the hands of the sitting prime minister to decide whether to realistically cling to power or tender his resignation to the Queen.
Whilst the negotiations continued, it became clear that Clegg was having difficulties in coming to an agreement with the Conservatives, so he broke off talks and re-started them with Labour. At this time, prominent hard-line Labour figures, such as former ministers, Charles Clarke, John Reid and David Blunkett, were voicing their opposition to such a deal. They were backed up by former members of the Lib/Dem hierarchy, David Steel and Charles Kennedy so, in the face of this opposition, Clegg resumed discussions with the Conservatives, and a deal was eventually announced.
We shouldn’t have been surprised as the similar background of the two leaders – from well-off backgrounds and public school and university-educations – oiled the way to a coalition agreement. Gordon Brown went to the palace to offer his resignation and David Cameron accepted the Queen’s invitation to form a government. What then were the prospects of long-term success for the political marriage?
A parliamentary majority of around 80 seats should be a useful insulation against any rebellion and there was real excitement in the air. The country had made it clear it was fed up with the perpetual inter-party squabbling and wanted a strong government to help restore a stable economic policy and to reverse the increasing power of the State under Labour. It all started well. Downing Street announced that Clegg was to be appointed Deputy Prime Minister. This was followed by a cosy press conference in the garden of Number Ten, at which Nick’n’Dave, as they have become popularly known, joked and outlined the details of their new agreement.
When the composition of the full cabinet was announced, the Lib/Dems had been given five major posts and junior ministers in virtually every government department.
Whilst this obviously pleased those involved, and their MPs could bask in the glory of being involved in government – undreamed of in living memory, many Lib/Dem supporters had to come to terms with what they felt was a ‘betrayal’. This was indeed sleeping with the enemy.
This mood may well have improved when proposed changes to the electoral system – a long-held Liberal ambition – were announced. One proposal is that all UK constituencies should have roughly the same number of voters.
At the moment, somewhere like the Isle of Wight, with an electoral roll of some 110,000, and is safe Conservative, returns just one member of parliament. A Labour-held industrial area in the north-east, with a similar number of voters, returns 5 MPs.
The first big test for the coalition will be how they deal with the present economic situation. Britain has the biggest level of national debt in Europe – a legacy of Labour’s policy of borrowing its way out of trouble. With the economies of a number of euro-zone countries in dire straits, tough decisions had to be made.
The first announcement involved a cut of over £6 billion in government spending, spread over all departments and including the removal of ministerial cars and first class travel facilities. This is only the first gesture, more will be revealed in the Budget, due on 22 June, and in the autumn.
There is a general feeling of acceptance in the country of the necessity for belt-tightening, as long as it is equally spread among rich and poor.
There is also a general feeling of goodwill towards the coalition and a desire for it to succeed. Failure would result in political disaster for both parties.
