THE CHANCES of Portugal fulfilling its mandate to ratify a new European Union treaty during its presidency is being threatened by Poland.
Poland is in the throes of a political crisis between liberal reformers and conservative nationalist Catholics over a whole range of issues from agricultural policy to EU voting rights.
Now this continuing political crisis, along with the crisis in Serbia over the future of Kosovo, is taking up most of Portugal’s time and threatening to place the Treaty of Lisbon at risk.
Next week, there is a chance that national elections will be called by the Polish parliament, which would make it impossible for the reformed EU treaty, The Treaty of Lisbon, to move forward under Portugal’s presidency.
The most probable date when the Poles will be called to the polls is either October 21 or 28.
An election in Warsaw would therefore only fall a matter of days after the Council of Europe meets in Lisbon on October 18 and 19, the dates when the new Reformed Treaty would be signed.
In the complicated game of Polish political chess, it is quite possible that the ‘European Question’ will become a key electoral theme.
In this case scenario, the Intergovernmental Conference (CIG) would have to be extended, probably until the Council of Europe meeting scheduled to be held in Brussels on December 13 and 14.
Although this would not indefinitely ruin the chances of a new reformed treaty being ironed out, it would come too late for Portugal’s presidency and would not, therefore, take its name, but would more likely be called the Treaty of Brussels.
Confronted with this worse case scenario, the Portuguese Secretary of State for European Affairs, Manuel Lobo Antunes, believes the CIG should begin as soon as possible, taking into account the June mandate which is on the table.
But apart from Warsaw, London could also become a fly in the ointment for the Portuguese presidency.
Gordon Brown is facing a rebellion in parliament from 120 Labour MPs that are demanding new concessions or the right to hold a public referendum.
Do you have a view on this story? Email: editor@portugalresident.com
