Oscar Wilde, a 19th-century writer who enjoyed a party, once remarked: “The optimist will tell you the glass is half-full; the pessimist, half-empty; and the engineer will tell you the glass is twice the size it needs to be.”
How do you feel now the New Year festivities are over? Let’s take 2025 as a forecast for 2026: a year of gloom or glee?
Galloping tourism growth
Portugal’s strong tourism branding has been a major success story, with total arrivals in 2025 projected at 33 million people, a record. In the 2025 World Travel Awards, the Algarve was again named ‘World’s Leading Beach Destination’.
Lisbon airport is having difficulty coping with hugely increased numbers and, while the country undeniably benefits, tourism can be overwhelming, with over-tourism in central areas of Lisbon and Porto often a sorry spectacle.
It’s time for us to consider what kind of tourism works. We can support the development of sensitive tourism, to the benefit of the environment, culture and wine sectors.
Income and opportunity disparities
The median gross salary in Portugal is €1,314, while the median rental for a two-bedroom apartment is €1,220 nationwide and €1,780 in Lisbon. The cost of living and in particular the need for affordable housing are huge concerns for much of Portugal’s population and belie The Economist’s recent attribution of number one slot to Portugal’s economy – possibly this distinguished newspaper was thinking of Portugal’s impressive monetary and macro-economic management, not the 18.6% of the population who, in 2024, were ‘at risk of poverty or social exclusion’.
Portugal’s public hospitals are currently underfunded, with staff shortages, too many closed A&E departments, and long waiting times.
2026 will likely see growth in the AI job market, today lacking specialized talent to meet increasing adoption of AI technologies.
Immigration, pros and cons
In 2025, 16% of Portugal’s population were immigrants. If you are reading this article published in English, you are likely to be one too. Immigrants are often seen by ‘indigenous’ populations as a threat … but anyone who has lived in London, for example, will know how much migration can add to a community.
In Portugal, many of the jobs the Portuguese don’t want to do are carried out by economic and political migrants: agricultural labour, hospitals, dish washing … nearly 29% of foreigners living in Portugal are in a situation of poverty or social exclusion, 10% above the general Portuguese population.
Residency Card renewal times by AIMA, Portugal’s overwhelmed immigration authority, are currently a shocking up-to-two years.
The increasing difficulty for centrist parties to govern
Portugal holds its presidential election on January 18. Far-right CHEGA leader André Ventura is a possible winner. This mirrors a dangerous European-wide isolationist trend with far-right populist parties in the United Kingdom, France and Germany hedging to be in power within the short future.
With many voters dissatisfied with their mainstream governments, it has become increasingly difficult to govern from the centre. Time to reflect?
Tottering demographics
Portugal’s population peaked in 2010, at 10.57 million, and has since slowly declined to 10.41 million today. Birth rates are stagnant and, according to Portugal’s National Institute of Statistics (INE), one-third of young Europeans do not want to have children.
In 2026, Portugal’s elderly will number more than twice the young, with a corresponding decrease in the working age population, and by 2050 33% will be elderly, suggesting disruptive implications for the country’s social and economic structure.
Is the climate emergency doomed to join the waiting list?
At last year’s COP 30, held in Belém, Brazil, developed nations struggled to increase climate finance for developing nations.
Internationally, the US administration is in retreat from supporting climate mitigation and adaptation. Fortunately, many private sector companies (and some cities) are stepping up.
In Portugal, renewable energy nudged 80% in 2025, while all residential structures are meant to have, at least, a D energy certificate by 2033.
How about reading (a book)?
A recent OECD survey of 16-65-year-olds found 42% of the Portuguese public has an alarmingly low level of literacy, a European-wide trend. One of the implications here is that infrequent reading of complex texts restricts cognitive ability to process complex concepts.
Ukraine stalled for now
Lisbon is more than 4,000 kilometres from Kyiv, but NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte says Russia could be ready to attack a NATO country within five years: Portugal is a member of NATO.
Russian President Vladimir Putin not only defies the world, and particularly Europe which he aims to split, he also appears, at 73, to defy ageing and was recently overheard chatting to China’s President Xi Jinping about immortality!
With peace negotiations stalled, at least for now, many of Europe’s military chiefs are talking about the possibility of a ‘long war’. However, spending on defence continues to rise cautiously, notably in Portugal and the United Kingdom. In the meantime, Russia ramps up easily deniable ‘grey zone’ warfare provocations.
Anyone who experienced the 2025 Iberian Peninsula power outage (which lasted an average of 10 hours) can imagine what the Ukrainian population is living through as Russia launches frequent, overwhelming attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure.
Portugal has offered Temporary Protection to more than 55,000 Ukrainians since the start of the war and has said its troops could join a ‘peacekeeping force’.
Reconciling defence with welfare spending
On January 3, Donald Trump ordered a massive US attack on Venezuela, capturing its president, Nicolás Maduro. Germany’s Chancellor Merz described legal assessment of the strike, which came without authorisation from the US Congress, as ‘complex’. An encouragement for other autocrats maybe?
Trump is proud to be a disruptive American president, whom leaders around the world dream of at night. Leveraging the threat to withdraw American military support for Europe, he has successfully coerced NATO members to ramp up their spending on defence to an eventual 5% of GDP.
On December 19, the European Union agreed to back a €90 billion loan to Ukraine. President Zelensky commented, “together, we’re defending the future of our continent”, highlighting Europe’s collective vulnerability.
This additional spending on defence could not come at a more inconvenient moment for many European countries, struggling to maintain the high levels of social welfare we are accustomed to – 24% of GDP in Portugal, and 23% in the United Kingdom – one reason governments are dragging their feet on increasing defence spending.
Behind a teen’s bedroom door
Many parents experience concern and frustration at not knowing what’s going on behind their teen’s firmly closed bedroom door. Is the kid, for example, victim to cyberbullying or manipulation?
Australia, acting as a social laboratory, legislated in December 2025 to ban social media access for under 16s. The European Parliament is also urging restricted access.
Which side of the discussion will Portugal come down on? Restricting access for teens (addictive access can lead to anxiety and depression) or considering social media a form of support for isolated teens (access to mediated support platforms such as for diversity, obesity or abuse)?
All to consider as we enter 2026… A year of gloom or glee? A New Year’s resolution: let’s act as agents of change for a better world!
