Almost half of the people in Portugal expect 2026 to be “a year of continuity” at national level, although many fear a deterioration in the international situation, according to an opinion poll released on Friday by ISCTE’s Institute for Social Public Policy (IPPS).
The findings come from a survey on the expectations of the Portuguese for the coming year at family, national and international levels, coordinated by Pedro Adão e Silva and Isabel Flores, from IPPS-ISCTE, as part of the ‘Panorama 2026’ report. The poll was conducted by GfK Metris and included 807 respondents.
When asked about political stability in Portugal, 46% said they expect the situation to remain unchanged in 2026. A further 31% believe it will worsen, while 14% anticipate improvements. Nine per cent said they did not know.
Views on the national economy follow a similar pattern. Forty-two per cent expect continuity, 36% foresee a deterioration and 14% believe the situation will improve.
Pessimism eases when respondents consider their own household finances. More than half (56%) expect their family situation to remain the same, 16% anticipate improvements and 25% believe it will worsen.
Despite this relative stability, the researchers warn that “there is no room for optimism”, noting that the dominant expectation across most areas is stagnation rather than improvement.
At international level, pessimism is strongest. Forty per cent of respondents expect 2026 to be worse than 2025, the same proportion who believe it will remain unchanged. Only 11% expressed optimism about global developments.
The authors describe the widespread expectation of continuity as “surprising”, given that 2025 was marked by political instability in Portugal, including the dissolution of parliament and elections that resulted in a fragmented legislature, alongside a tense global geopolitical environment.
The study also highlights clear social and political divides. Lower-income respondents are consistently more pessimistic, as are those who identify with the political left.
By contrast, respondents who say they live comfortably tend to be less concerned about the national economy and their own finances (only 23% say the new year may be worse), although around half remain pessimistic about the international situation.
Younger respondents are the least pessimistic across all categories. Among those aged 18 to 24, only 22% expect a deterioration in political stability, one in four foresee a worsening economy, and just 14% are pessimistic about their household finances.
Source: Lusa
