European opinion poll shows how tuned in countries are to changing times
An opinion poll conducted in 12 European countries shows that the Portuguese – habitually seen as tolerant people not given to histrionics – are those most afraid of the use of nuclear weapons, a possible third world war and a European war beyond Ukraine.
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) said in a study published today: “Most Europeans are waking up to the reality that they live in a very different world. While fears of a Russian attack on NATO territory are less widespread than some analysts suggest – although they are felt strongly in certain border states such as Poland, Estonia and Romania, as well as in Portugal – it is the growing fear of nuclear conflict that most clearly captures the new European anxiety.”
On the eve of a two-day North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit marked by strong geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine and the need to increase investment in defence, the ECFR releases the results of a survey covering 12 countries (Portugal, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom) and 16,440 respondents over the age of 18.
When asked whether they were worried about potential events, Portuguese respondents indicated that they were most concerned about the use of nuclear weapons (85%), a third world war (82%) and an even bigger war on European soil beyond Ukraine (77%). These were the highest percentages among the countries interviewed.
Conversely, Portuguese respondents were less concerned about a possible Russian invasion of Portugal* (54%) and the break-up of the European Union (EU) or NATO (65% and 66%, respectively).
The Portuguese respondents (1,010, interviewed between May 16 and 28) also said they were more concerned that the state would invest too much in defence and neglect other policies than that it would not invest enough and that this would jeopardise the country’s security.
As for US President Donald Trump, the majority of those questioned in Portugal (54%) believe that he has negatively affected relations between Europe and the United States, but that such relations will improve when he leaves office (or rather, if he leaves…)
The 12 countries selected by ECFR for this opinion study are based on criteria such as geographical balance and size.
NATO allies meet on tomorrow for a summit in the Dutch city of The Hague under the urgency of spending more on defence, ‘hoping there will be no war but preparing for the worst’.
This two-day meeting will serve to discuss world events and their impact on Euro-Atlantic security, with allies preparing for war (without waiting for it to actually occur).
There is talk of a target of reaching 3.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with traditional military spending (armed forces, equipment and training) and an additional 1.5% of GDP on dual-use, civilian and military infrastructure (such as cybersecurity, readiness and strategic resilience), an increase compared to the current target of 2%.
Spain has already negotiated a way out of this level of commitment; this far, Portugal has said very little beyond all of it is “a big effort”.
Last year, Portugal invested around 4,480 million euros in defense, approximately 1.58% of its GDP, which placed the country among NATO’s ‘bad payers’ – below the 2% target.
Portugal will be represented at the summit in The Hague by the Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, and by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense, Paulo Rangel and Nuno Melo.
*A widely held opinion among lay people in Portugal is that the country is fairly safe from invasion (whether it be from Russia/ China or even the United States) because it is essentially ‘not relevant enough’ to bother with. ND
Source: Lusa
