PS at risk of worst result in history
The gamble by Portugal’s prime minister Luís Montenegro to ‘let the people decide’ whether the drama made about his family firm was really worth bringing down a government seems to have paid off in spades this evening.
Not long after the voting stations closed at 7pm, results started showing that Montenegro’s AD government continues to have the confidence of the country – to the point that it looks poised to have clinched more votes than all the parties of the left put together.
PS Socialists are paying the price of their constant attacks, and appear on track for their worst result in history. Shortly after midnight, PS secretary general Pedro Nuno Santos presented his resignation as leader of the party, saying he was convening internal elections.
CHEGA meantime has pulled the rabbit out of the hat: a party just as much to ‘blame’ for the forcing the country into elections, it is emerging with even more gains than it made in 2024 – and could end the evening as the country’s second political force.
In spite of his campaign ‘collapses’, CHEGA leader André Ventura is being hailed as “the man of the night”.
It is still too early for leaders to give their speeches, but PSD’s secretary general Hugo Soares has already said that the AD coalition with CDS-PP has “emerged from this electoral act much stronger (…) The Portuguese people had a firm conviction in this electoral act: to evaluate the Government in an absolutely positive way, to reinforce confidence in the head of the Government and to unequivocally choose the AD to continue to govern”, he said, in an early reaction to television projections that give the victory of AD.
Projections initially showed AD winning with between 29% and 36.9%, followed closely by PS and CHEGA.
Since then, AD’s margin has reached 32.8% (with 89 MPs already elected), and PS and CHEGA are neck and neck, both with 58 MPs (23.4% and 22.6% of votes respectively).
The other parties are trailing some way behind. As we wrote this, Iniciativa Liberal, LIVRE, CDU and Bloco de Esquerda had managed to elect MPs (IL – 9, LIVRE – 6, CDU – 3, BE – 1, PAN – 1), although the night is still ‘young: more results will come through.
What has been remarkable is the way the ‘map’ of results has changed since last year: the once Communist Alentejo is no more: the district of Beja has ‘fallen’ to CHEGA, as has the Algarve (already CHEGA’s stronghold since last year) Setúbal and Portalegre.
Commentators’ opinions are being aired on all channels right now, but the bottom line is that this has been a catastrophic night for PS Socialists (the party reportedly lost 365,000 votes). It had been looking at municipal elections in a few months’ time with some enthusiasm. Tonight’s results will undoubtedly change all that.
More to come as the party leaders give their speeches.
Leaving Belém Palace late this afternoon, President Marcelo stressed that he intends to convene all parties tomorrow, to hear them “calmly and serenely” throughout the week.
Abstention has always been a feature in Portugal’s elections, and this time round is no exception. It is still ‘high’ at 37.5% (in spite of all the exhortations to vote). And there is still the question of ‘working majority’ – AD’s result this far hasn’t got one (it would need a minimum of 116 MPs). Even a coalition with IL will not give this number (or certainly hasn’t yet).
Portugal has definitively ‘turned right’ if one factors into the equation all the votes won by CHEGA, but AD (and IL) have always said they cannot accept a government with CHEGA, so there will be a lot to discuss ‘calmly and serenely’ in the coming days.
