Portugal is positioning itself at the centre of a major shift in global tourism, as instability in the Middle East pushes travellers to rethink where they go — and choose safer destinations.
A new analysis by IPDT – Tourism Intelligence suggests Portugal could be on the verge of capturing a significant slice of the German tourism market, potentially bringing in €500 million and hundreds of thousands of additional visitors.
The shift is being driven by a simple but powerful change: safety is no longer assumed – it is now a deciding factor when tourists choose where they go.
According to the tourism consultancy, global tourism is entering a new phase where risk awareness is reshaping travel decisions. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East – a region that acts as a major international travel hub – are disrupting flight routes, increasing operational costs and, crucially, altering demand.
Portugal, long ranked among the safest countries in the world, is emerging as a clear alternative.
“The future of Portuguese tourism will depend on our ability to anticipate and not just react,” said Jorge Costa, president of the IPDT. “In a context where travelling increasingly involves assessing risk, the destinations that will stand out will not only be the most desirable, but the most reliable. Safety is no longer an implicit attribute but has become an explicit competitive asset, and Portugal must quickly position itself as that solid alternative, capable of offering a concentrated diversity that meets the new demands of European travellers”.
The message is clear: Portugal’s reputation for stability and safety could become one of its strongest tourism assets.
Germany in the spotlight
According to IPDT’s report, the German market stands out as the biggest opportunity for Portugal.
In 2024, around three million German tourists – excluding those travelling to Turkey – visited Middle Eastern destinations for stays longer than five nights. Egypt alone welcomed a large share of that flow.
Now, with confidence in the region shaken, Portugal is looking to redirect part of that demand.
If the country manages to attract just 15% of those travellers, the impact would be substantial: an additional 300,000 guests, 2.4 million extra overnight stays, and around €500 million injected into the economy, IPDT says.
For a sector that remains one of Portugal’s economic pillars, the figures are hard to ignore.
Airlines move quickly
Airlines are already reacting to the shift.
German carrier Lufthansa has announced it will increase flights to and from Portugal, citing growing demand for safe European destinations as travellers steer away from more volatile regions.
The airline is adding 540 routes to its hubs in Frankfurt and Munich between April and October, expanding capacity across southern Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula. As a result, Portugal will be one of the main beneficiaries.
The move also carries some strategic weight, as Lufthansa is one of the major players interested in acquiring a 44.9% stake in TAP Air Portugal, Portugal’s flagship airline.
At the same time, long-haul travel is expected to evolve differently.
Despite a recovery in Asian markets after the pandemic, the complexity and cost of travel – rather than safety concerns – may become the main barrier for those journeys.
Closer to home, European travellers are likely to favour nearby destinations. Spain and France, in particular, are expected to increase their interest in Portugal, drawn by its balance of safety and value for money, IPDT says in its report.
Security narrative reinforced at home
Portugal’s internal security data appears to support the country’s positioning.
Speaking after a meeting of the Superior Council for Internal Security last month, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro said the situation in the country remains under control, even as certain concerns persist.
“We have reasons to see a controlled situation in Portugal, to present Portugal as a safe country, but also reasons for concern about some trends and to continue to improve the articulation and coordination work,” he said.
The latest Annual Internal Security Report (RASI) shows that while general crime reports may have risen slightly, serious and violent crime has decreased.
Authorities point to increased arrests and seizures, particularly in drug trafficking, as evidence of a more effective strategy.
Overall, the message aligns with Portugal’s tourism pitch: the country is stable, predictable and actively managing risks.
Conditions must be met for sustainable growth
While the outlook is promising, experts warn that success is not guaranteed. The main challenge is not attracting tourists – it is handling them.
The IPDT consultancy highlights the risk of overloading infrastructure in key areas such as Lisbon and the Algarve, where pressure on resources like water and energy is already a concern.
To avoid this, the report calls for a more balanced approach, including expanding direct air connections, managing airport slots strategically, strengthening Porto as a key hub, and promoting inland and central regions.
The goal is to spread demand more evenly and create a more sustainable tourism model.
Efforts to diversify tourism are already underway. The Algarve, traditionally reliant on European markets, is actively targeting new audiences while reinforcing existing ones.
This April, the region is focusing on Brazil through a series of industry events, while also hosting German journalists and travel agents to showcase its outdoor and nature offerings.
Uncertainty in the skies
Not all signals are positive. Low-cost carrier Ryanair has warned of potential jet fuel shortages in May if the Middle East conflict continues, raising the possibility of higher ticket prices.
CEO Michael O’Leary said the airline does not expect disruptions before early May, but risks could emerge soon after.
“We don’t expect any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June, and we hope the war will finish sooner rather than later,” he said.
He added that there is “a reasonable risk, some low level, maybe 10% to 25% of our supplies might be at risk through May and June”.
Such developments could affect travel costs and, ultimately, demand – even for safer destinations like Portugal.
For now, the opportunity is clear. Global tourism is shifting, and Portugal is well placed to benefit – particularly from German travellers seeking safe, reliable destinations.
But timing will be critical. Capturing this market will require quick action: better connectivity, smarter planning and a clear strategy to manage growth without overwhelming the country’s infrastructure, the IPDT report concludes.
If it succeeds, Portugal could turn global uncertainty into a significant economic gain.
