Sequences of storms such as those that are affecting mainland Portugal are rare but not unprecedented, according to climate expert Pedro Matos Soares, who nevertheless warns that climate change will bring increasingly extreme weather events to the country and requires a profound adaptation of society.
Since January 22, mainland Portugal was hit by three consecutive storms – Ingrid, Joseph and Kristin – the last of which caused at least ten deaths and widespread damage, particularly in the central regions of Leiria, Coimbra and Santarém. Now, Leonardo is set to bring further bad weather Portugal’s way.
In an interview with Lusa, the atmospheric physicist and professor at the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon explained that a “train of depressions” such as the one observed is “not very frequent” but is part of Portugal’s climatic characteristics.
“We have always had and will always have these phenomena, called depression trains. It is part of our climate because we are in a transitional zone,” he said, stressing that although rare, such episodes are not unprecedented.
According to the expert, the situation was caused by the persistent positioning of the Azores anticyclone further south than usual, combined with high-pressure systems at higher latitudes, such as Scandinavia. This configuration created a corridor allowing depressions generated in the North Atlantic to move eastwards towards Portugal and even the United Kingdom.
Storm Kristin, he added, had specific characteristics associated with a so-called “sting jet”, a phenomenon that produces very intense wind and precipitation. While relatively rare in Portugal, sting jet storms have occurred before, notably in 2009 and in 2018, associated with Hurricane Leslie.
Pedro Matos Soares cautioned, however, that comparisons with the past must take into account the fact that today’s capacity to observe and measure storms is far superior to that of 50 or 100 years ago, making long historical comparisons difficult.
He stressed that Portugal’s transitional climate, between subtropical and mid-latitude regimes, makes the country particularly sensitive to variability. This is compounded by strong geographical contrasts, with areas such as Gerês and Alcoutim representing, respectively, some of the wettest and driest regions in Europe on average.
The expert does not directly associate the recent storms with climate change, warning that a very rainy week or month cannot, by itself, be attributed to global warming. However, he underlined that scientific projections consistently indicate that Portugal will be increasingly affected by extremes of precipitation – either too much rain or too little.
“No major change is projected in the number of storms that hit us,” he said, “but when they do occur, they will be more intense”, due to higher temperatures, increased evaporation, greater water vapour in the atmosphere and oceans with more accumulated energy.
Heatwaves, he added, are already clearly linked to climate change, as are major shifts in precipitation patterns.
Pedro Matos Soares does not believe people should be afraid, but warned that climate change has direct impacts on populations, economic activity and ecosystems, including heatwaves, fires, floods and more severe storms.
“Instead of paralysing ourselves with fear, we need to do something more intelligent,” he said, arguing that Portugal must rethink land-use planning, infrastructure and civil protection.
The researcher, who also leads the PHAIR-EARTH start-up specialising in high-resolution climate projections and risk assessment, defended a radical adaptation of buildings and infrastructure, both new and renovated, to withstand today’s climate and that of the coming decades, rather than that of the 20th century.
This includes stricter building regulations to improve resistance to extreme rainfall and wind, particularly for critical infrastructure such as power grids, schools, roads, bridges and public buildings, which could function as “climate shelters” if properly reinforced.
Pedro Matos Soares also criticised the current civil protection alert system, arguing that sending SMS warnings without clear guidance leaves people “to fend for themselves”. He called for local rapid-response plans and shelters, as well as alerts that explain what people should do and where they should go.
He further highlighted the lack of climate-risk mapping for the next 10, 20 or 30 years, which prevents informed decisions on investment priorities, and noted that many people live in flood-prone areas without being aware of the risks.
“We need a more prepared society, anchored in knowledge, and not just a text message that does not explain what to do as a result,” the expert concluded.
Source: LUSA
